FAQ4_en

• Currently, Japan’s annual demand for ammonia is approximately 1 million tons, however a single 1,000 MW coal-fired power plant using 20% ammonia substitution, will use approximately 500,000 tons, accounting for half of the current demand in Japan. Unlike hydrogen, ammonia is already traded internationally on a commercial basis, but the demand for ammonia as a fuel is enormous, so it is important to establish a large-scale and reliable supply chain like LNG for the social implementation of fuel ammonia.
• The interim report of the Public and Private Councils for the Introduction of Fuel Ammonia, organized by the Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, estimates domestic demand for fuel ammonia of 3 million tons in 2030 and 30 million tons in 2050 in order to reduce GHG emissions, and aims to establish a global supply chain of 100 million tons by 2050¹⁾.
• Countries such as the Americas, Australia, and the Middle East that capable to produce ammonia including CCS, and other countries with large amount of renewable energy are showing interest in supplying fuel ammonia. Ammonia production and transportation methods have already been established, and although it will take a certain time for each country to expand its production capacity to meet the growing international demand for ammonia, including the implementation policies of each country and the start-up of individual projects, we believe that we can establish a supply chain more quickly than other energy carriers.
• A presentation delivered by the Ammonia Energy Association (AEA)^*1 at the QUAD Ammonia Value Chain Workshop hosted by the Japan Energy and Metals National Corporation (JOGMEC) in December 2022, summarized the annual production of each of blue and green ammonia in the world’s previously published fuel-ammonia production plans. It was shown that by 2030, 20.6 million tons of blue and 47.2 million tons of green, and if further included, 27.1 million tons of blue and 144.7 million tons of green²⁾. These developments are expected to be sufficient to meet the above-mentioned fuel ammonia demand in Japan and around the world. In this way, the supply side is also preparing to expand production of clean fuel ammonia, for which demand is increasing.
• It is important that these fuel ammonia production plans are well implemented. According to IRENA^*2, the global demand increase of fuel ammonia from 2024 to 2050 is expected to be about 360 million tons per year³⁾, which, taking into account the 3-5 year construction period of the ammonia production plant, would require an annual production increase of 18 million tons per year on a simple pro-rata basis to achieve this in 20 years from 2030 to 2050. On the other hand, based on the past record of ammonia production expansion (i.e. number of new plants built per year), the production capacity expansion and increased investment inflow as well as the dawn of the LNG industry, and the fact that the production capacity per ammonia production plant is expected to exceed 2 to 3 million tons⁴⁾ due to future technological innovation, it is feasible to estimate that the production capacity per ammonia production plant will increase to 18 million tons per year in 2030-2050.

*1   Ammonia Energy Association (AEA): A U.S.-based international organization that promotes the production, distribution, and use of clean ammonia. 252 member companies worldwide as of December 31, 2023.

*2 International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA): An international organization established to promote the diffusion and sustainable use of renewable energy sources (solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydropower, ocean energy, etc.) As of March 27, 2024, IRENA has 168 member countries and the EU.

1. Public and Private Sector Council on Introduction of Fuel Ammonia, Interim Report of Public and Private Sector Council on Introduction of Fuel Ammonia (February 2021) (In Japanese)
   【Link】
2. T. Brown (Ammonia Energy Association), “Ammonia Certification”, Quad Workshop on Ammonia Value Chain (Dec 2, 2022).【Link】
3. IRENA Innovation Outlook Renewable Ammonia (2022) 【Link】
4. KBR Launches Ammonia 10,000 to Meet Future Sustainable Energy and Fertilizer Demands (Oct 31, 2022)【Link】